Issue Date: August 14, 2009
Are We at the End of the Stock Market Rally?
Most of the recent economic reports have strongly suggested that we are in the midst of the early stages of an economic recovery. The S&P has posted new highs and trading above 1000. The market is showing signs of recovery with light at the end of this tunnel. Is this for real or just smoke and mirrors? Last week’s unemployment number actually dropped. That also appears to be hard to believe.
Recently the "non-far” payroll employment continued to decline in July (-247,000), while the unemployment rate remained high at 9.4 percent, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The average monthly job loss for May through July (-331,000) was about half the average decline for November through April (-645,000). In July, job losses continued in many of the major industry sectors.
By David Pappas
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A Daring Leap / Quantitative Ease Off
A daring leap sideways: In these times of economic uncertainty the global oil market continues to boldly go where long time bulls, bears and trend followers fear to go, sideways. Where is the action, people? Wake up! Bulls are frustrated, bears are frustrated and those pesky day traders are having their time of their life. Right now the oil market continues to show signs of stability. Yikes stability! What fun is that? Last Friday oil prices closed at 7038 and as I write this after a week with a big time major league Fed announcement, global GDP figures and enough macro-economic and global oil supply and demand data that would make even a number crunching junkie mouth water oil is just a measly 30 cents lower than where it closed last Friday. Let’s face it oil cannot make a commitment as it is trying to decide whether or not the economy is recording and whether or not a recovery is going to mean that the next big move in oil will be up or down.
By Phil Flynn
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USDA's Corn Report Shows Large Crop In The Making
The USDA issued their monthly corn report on Wednesday and confirmed that a near record, if not a record large crop is in the making. The national average yield was pegged at 159.5 bushels per acre compared to 153.4 in last month’s report. The current record yield stands at 160.4, which was made in 2004. Most expect this yield will be surpassed this year in future supply/demand reports. Most traders were expecting an increase in yield, although the actual figure still came in above trade estimates. Perhaps the most surprising aspect of the report was contained in the acreage numbers. The USDA left total planted acreage unchanged from last month, while reducing projected harvested acres by only 100,000 acres.
By Dennis Smith
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